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Yes, Democrats can win the House (Though Probably not This Year)
Chris Cillizza wrote a piece titled, “Why it’s going to be hard for Democrats to win back the House this decade.” He makes the argument that with a declining share of competitive seats it will become harder for Democrats to retake the House. The declining number of competitive seats is a big problem. However, it’s
Who’s the Worst President? Evaluating the Quinnipiac Poll
Quinnipiac University’s “worst president” poll got a lot of press. Washington Post, the New York Times, CNN, Fox, and virtually every other news outlet have carried the headline, “Obama is the Worst President since WWII.” This particular survey question is press-chum. The survey’s designers likely knew it would get the press’s attention and included it for that
Obama, a Republican Congress, and Impeachment
Some Republicans are eager to impeach the President. Some are so eager that they go on the record saying that impeachment would probably pass the House. Representatives Barletta (R-LA), Farenthold (R-TX), and Senator Cruz (R-TX) say that the only obstacle is the Democratic Senate, which would not convict the President. The Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart
Could Boehner be the First Speaker to Lose Job and Win Seats?
The Fix recently wrote about how “A 2015 rebellion against John Boehner would be unprecedented.” In the piece Philip Bump argues that “no speaker has overseen a pick-up of House seats and subsequently lost his job.” Setting aside problems in closely connecting congressional elections and the speakership election across this period,* this statement really hangs
Assessing Congressional Productivity: Getting it Right
The Washington Post’s Wonkblog had a write up on congressional productivity not long ago. Its central thesis is Congress is more productive in election years than in non-election years. This is a good counter-intuitive point. Many pundits discuss congressional productivity only in terms of major bills passed. However, Congress often passes laws that fly under
Senatorial Courtesy, Blue Slips Caught in the Fallout
Ian Millhiser has a very good piece on judicial nominations and blue slips over at Think Progress. It covers a lot of ground and is a wonderful read. However, I do have some bones to pick with his take. At the core of Millhiser’s argument are blue slips and their place in Senate history. He contends
Senatorial Courtesy, Blue Slips Caught in the Fallout
Ian Millhiser has a very good piece on judicial nominations and blue slips over at Think Progress. It covers a lot of ground and is a wonderful read. However, I do have some bones to pick with his take. At the core of Millhiser’s argument are blue slips and their place in Senate history.
A Caveat on Congressional Productivity
On Thursday, Chris Cillizza examined an Obama statement in Texas: “This has become the least productive Congress in modern history, recent memory. And that’s by objective measures, just basic activity.” Cillizza agrees and extrapolates this a little too far, saying this Congress is the least productive in history. By the numbers many would argue this isn’t
Boehner’s Overthrow and the “Then What?” Problem
Boehner’s time as Speaker may be limited. Yesterday Tim Alberta reported on substantial conversations to replace Boehner. This morning Brian Buetler verified that these talks are not particularly covert. According to several accounts, House Republicans are not hiding their dissatisfaction with the leadership. However, as both articles mention the plan suffers from a “then what?” problem. Conservatives’
Will McCutcheon Decision help the House Majority?
To say the Republican majority has struggled with the influence of outside groups during the past two congresses is to put it mildly. These groups have stymied progress on major legislation, counseled members into bad strategic stances with serious economic and political consequences, and generally frustrated House and Senate compromise. From the government shutdown, Hurricane