So far, the most surprising thing about the shutdown is Democrats’ early polling advantage. A Washington Post poll finds 47% of the public blaming Republicans, versus only 30% for Democrats. The New York Times/Sienna poll conducted before the shutdown puts more blame on Republicans (26%) than Democrats (19%). G. Elliott Morris over at Strength in Numbers has a great rundown if you are interested in even more polls.
Most Congress folks I know did not expect this, myself included. Historically, the party forcing the shutdown “owns” the shutdown and the public opinion consequences. That was true for Republicans in 1995, 2013 and 2018-2019. In this case, Democrats are filibustering a clean continuing resolution (CR) to reopen the government. It doesn’t really matter if Republicans control all three branches. If Democrats stopped filibustering the CR, the government would reopen. And yet, early polling has blamed Republicans.
I have a few thoughts on this. I don’t think it fundamentally changes the big shutdown pictures. Democrats are forcing the shutdown, will probably not win the policy concessions they seek, and will likely cave and reopen the government. However, these early polls do shift the politics as bit as we enter the second week.
First, (and in my opinion most likely) this advantage could be temporary. Shutdowns are temporal affairs and things will change with time. Withholding government funding becomes far more difficult as more economic pain is inflicted. Republicans will force more votes in the coming days to tie Senate Democrats to the shutdown. Each successful filibuster is another opportunity for Republicans to blame Democrats for the shutdown. These votes will become much more painful when federal workers start to miss paychecks, which for many will happen Friday, followed by active duty troops on the 15th. Keep in mind, this is a government-wide shutdown.* So neither government workers nor troops will receive paychecks should the government remained closed. The price of a shutdown is far higher this time around and that political cost will reverberate through the system. Again, it’s really early. We need more polls to understand how this plays out and if this advantage disappears as economic pain increases.
Second, it’s possible attitudes about Trump and the administration are baked into these numbers. Attitudes about specific events are not always viewed in isolation. External events and factors can shape and frame how people view current events. In this case, Trump’s approval are near the lowest of his second term. He is under water on most issues, from immigration to the economy. If tariffs, national guard mobilizations, the state of the economy, etc., are at the “top of the head” when voters are asked about the shutdown, it is very possible those attitudes influence their shutdown opinions. This is speculative but it seems to me it is a real possibility. For Republicans, if this endure this could be a real anchor dragging down their position in Congress. That anchor could be even more problematic if the President does unpopular things, like withhold money from Democratic states or starts mass layoffs in the federal workforce. On the other hand, if the shutdown creates a rallying effect among Republicans, boosting the President’s and Republicans’ numbers, it could strengthen their hand and put Democrats on their heels. But again, it is early. As shutdown coverage saturates the media environment, it is possible voters form new attitudes and the numbers may shift.
Third, it is possible people buy Democrats’ messaging. This leads me to Democratic leaders decidedly odd strategy. It is not odd that they are trying to shift blame to Republicans. But it is odd to verbally disavow their strategy entirely even as they implement it. Democrats have blamed Republicans for a shutdown they initiated to stand up against Trump and the administration. It is unclear if voters buy this or if their opinions are being shaped by [all the things]. But early polling return should be encouraging to Democratic leaders who are decidedly not enthusiastic about a shutdown. (See this quote from Jamie Dupree’s excellent Regular Order substack.)
- STRATEGY. One Democratic Party insider told me this weekend that party leaders feel like this is their best strategy choice. They don’t like the idea of a shutdown – but they want to try to highlight how much health insurance costs will go up for over 20 million Americans next year.
And finally, if these numbers are not temporary, it will extend the shutdown. Shutdowns end because members’ political situations weaken. Lower polls put politicians in danger of losing their seats. As members – particularly moderates – watch their positions weaken, they will push to cave or may begin voting with Republicans to end the filibuster. Republicans are banking on this. They already have the votes of Democratic-caucusing Senators Fetterman (D-PA), Cortez Masto (D-NV), and King (I-ME). They are targeting Senators Shaheen (D-NH) and Peters (D-MI), betting they will be the next to cross the line and help reopen the government. However, if Democrats sustain their polling advantage, there’s less incentive to cave. That will extend the filibuster and shutdown. It also makes it much less certain when this shutdown will end. (For the truly pessimistic: Yes, it will end… at some point.)
I’d still bet the shutdown ends within two weeks. But if these poll numbers hold, that becomes a far more risky bet.
*Previous shutdowns were mostly partial. Congress funded some agencies but failed to fund all of them. So while some of the government was shutdown, much of it was not. For example, in 2018-2019, Congress had already funded 5 of the 12 appropriations bills, included defense. So many agencies – included DoD, HHS, Education, and others – were not closed.
