In early January, President Trump announced that his administration will ask Congress to approve a record $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal year 2027. Beyond the sticker shock, recent reports have identified that the Pentagon isn’t quite sure how they’d even spend that much money. It’s easy to get overwhelmed by headlines—let’s take a breath and situate this in context and where we are in the appropriations process. Congress has yet to receive the official budget request which by law is due by the first Monday in February. This delay is not unusual as late budget submissions have become common occurrences for both Republican and Democratic presidents. And Congress can certainly kick start the process (however imperfect that is) through the annual defense posture hearings. In fact, the Senate Armed Services Committee has already conducted its first such hearing for the year. But in the absence of a timely and detailed spending plan, especially in light of what could be a dramatic increase in defense spending from this year’s budget, congressional authorizers and appropriators will lack crucial guidance and clarity as they begin budget deliberations for next fiscal year.
At this early stage (and without the benefit of a substantive budget submission) there are two broad questions to consider when evaluating the $1.5 trillion top line number that the president has put forward. First, what is the context for the $1.5 trillion and how does it compare to recent appropriations for defense dollars? Second, and rather crucially, what will be the practical and procedural mechanics of shepherding a massive defense budget during an election year when serious legislating increasingly has become anemic?
Proposed Defense Spending in Historical and Methodological Context:
How much the country spends on defense is certainly of great interest to national security and military experts, but it is also an important metric that animates the overall annual budget debates on Capitol Hill. In the last couple of years, complex global security threats coupled with a deteriorating fiscal environment at home have only heightened lawmakers’ fears about persistent inadequacies in resourcing national defense. There are big trends, but also different ways of measuring military spending.
While currently the defense budget comprises a little over 50% of all discretionary spending (the portion of the federal budget determined by the annual appropriations process; a little over a quarter of all federal spending), it represents only about 12.5% of total federal spending which is about half the historical average of 24%. Additionally, defense discretionary spending as a share of GDP has been steadily declining and is projected to fall even further over the next decade. It’s also notable that the current level of 2.9% is below the historical share of about 4%. And while the United States continues to dominate in worldwide military expenditures, this measure of comparison is not particularly useful when determining our defense spending levels.
One significant challenge is how to accurately capture the full breadth of defense spending by other countries, especially those that present arguably the most pressing security concerns for our nation. China is perceived by many as the obvious problem but even friendlier countries with less opaque systems can differ significantly in how they categorize defense and non-defense spending. Overall defense spending as a share of GDP in the United States is now actually lower than some NATO countries. And while the United States’ military spending is nearly double that of Europe and Canada combined, it projects power across the globe in a way that is not comparable to those allies.
What Will Congress Do With This Proposal?
The proposed $1.5 trillion figure for next year’s defense budget can be a bit disorienting at first, especially for those used to seeing a figure of around $600-700 billion for the past fifteen or so years. But once the shock of passing the trillion threshold wears off, this is not necessarily a surprising development. Congress has already shown a certain degree of comfort in flirting with the trillion mark, appropriating $838.5 billion in defense discretionary spending for this fiscal year along with a $156 billion defense plus up in the 2025 reconciliation bill (OBBBA). Granted, the reconciliation money is outside the regular Pentagon appropriations and available for the next five years, so not quite a true trillion annual defense base budget yet. Ultimately what might matter more than the number itself is how Congress adjudicates competing policy priorities and the affordability of higher defense spending.
Now to the hard part. While some key congressional defense authorizers have already enthusiastically endorsed the idea of a $1.5 trillion defense budget, it’s not clear yet how widespread this sentiment is among the wider Republican conference. Appropriators, meanwhile, have kept their plans quiet so far. There are certainly a good number of Republican members who would like to see higher defense budgets but might prefer to take a different approach of more gradual and, crucially, more sustainable increases over time.
If the administration formally submits a $1.5 trillion budget request, it’s probably safe to assume that Congress will not be able to shepherd it as one and done regular defense appropriations. This is simply too much of a yearly increase during peacetime. The House is contending with slim margins and the Senate will need Democratic votes to pass any appropriations legislation. During an election year members’ priorities shift; dramatic increases in defense spending that crowd out domestic priorities may not be welcome.
The only other option then is to go the reconciliation route again. This may be a tempting proposition for the Republican majority, especially because they could lose control of the House in the upcoming midterm elections. Under this scenario, Congress could potentially keep annual defense appropriations at a more palatable $1 trillion and provide for the rest of the request in the reconciliation package. But even assuming Republican leadership is on board (not a given just yet), it could still be a heavy lift to corral support for $500 billion strictly for defense. And before members agree to approve it, they’ll surely want to scrutinize the administration’s plans to spend the 2025 reconciliation money, as well as other military plans. The final obstacle is timing: realistically, any serious reconciliation negotiations and a vote would have to be completed before the November election.
While many signs point to a record defense budget for fiscal year 2027, there’s little clarity yet on how high they’ll go or how they’ll get there.
